# Version 0.6-11 of NIMBLE released

We’ve released the newest version of NIMBLE on CRAN and on our website.

Version 0.6-11 has important new features, notably support for Bayesian nonparametric mixture modeling, and more are on the way in the next few months.

New features include:

- support for Bayesian nonparametric mixture modeling using Dirichlet process mixtures, with specialized MCMC samplers automatically assigned in NIMBLE’s default MCMC (See Chapter 10 of the manual for details);
- additional resampling methods available with the auxiliary and bootstrap particle filters;
- user-defined filtering algorithms can be used with NIMBLE’s particle MCMC samplers;
- MCMC thinning intervals can be modified at MCMC run-time;
- both runMCMC() and nimbleMCMC() now drop burn-in samples before thinning, making their behavior consistent with each other;
- increased functionality for the ‘setSeed’ argument in nimbleMCMC() and runMCMC();
- new functionality for specifying the order in which sampler functions are executed in an MCMC; and
- invalid dynamic indexes now result in a warning and NaN values but do not cause execution to error out, allowing MCMC sampling to continue.

Please see the NEWS file in the installed package for more details

# Quick guide for converting from JAGS or BUGS to NIMBLE

# Converting to NIMBLE from JAGS, OpenBUGS or WinBUGS

NIMBLE is a hierarchical modeling package that uses nearly the same modeling language as the popular MCMC packages WinBUGS, OpenBUGS and JAGS. NIMBLE makes the modeling language extensible — you can add distributions and functions — and also allows customization of MCMC or other algorithms that use models. Here is a quick summary of steps to convert existing code from WinBUGS, OpenBUGS or JAGS to NIMBLE. For more information, see examples on r-nimble.org or the NIMBLE User Manual.

## Main steps for converting existing code

These steps assume you are familiar with running WinBUGS, OpenBUGS or JAGS through an R package such as R2WinBUGS, R2jags, rjags, or jagsUI.

- Wrap your model code in
`nimbleCode({})`, directly in R. - This replaces the step of writing or generating a separate file containing the model code.
- Alternatively, you can read standard JAGS- and BUGS-formatted code and data files using

`readBUGSmodel`. - Provide information about missing or empty indices
- Example: If
`x`is a matrix, you must write at least`x[,]`to show it has two dimensions. - If other declarations make the size of
`x`clear,`x[,]`will work in some circumstances. - If not, either provide index ranges (e.g.
`x[1:n, 1:m]`) or use the`dimensions`argument to`nimbleModel`to provide the sizes in each dimension. - Choose how you want to run MCMC.
- Use
`nimbleMCMC()`as the just-do-it way to run an MCMC. This will take all steps to

set up and run an MCMC using NIMBLE’s default configuration. - To use NIMBLE’s full flexibility: build the model, configure and build the MCMC, and compile both the model and MCMC. Then run the MCMC via
`runMCMC`or by calling the`run`function of the compiled MCMC. See the NIMBLE User Manual to learn more about what you can do.

See below for a list of some more nitty-gritty additional steps you may need to consider for some models.

## Example: An animal abundance model

This example is adapted from Chapter 6, Section 6.4 of Applied Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology: Analysis of distribution, abundance and species richness in R and BUGS. Volume I: Prelude and Static Models by Marc Kéry and J. Andrew Royle (2015, Academic Press). The book’s web site provides code for its examples.

### Original code

The original model code looks like this:

cat(file = "model2.txt"," model { # Priors for(k in 1:3){ # Loop over 3 levels of hab or time factors alpha0[k] ~ dunif(-10, 10) # Detection intercepts alpha1[k] ~ dunif(-10, 10) # Detection slopes beta0[k] ~ dunif(-10, 10) # Abundance intercepts beta1[k] ~ dunif(-10, 10) # Abundance slopes } # Likelihood # Ecological model for true abundance for (i in 1:M){ N[i] ~ dpois(lambda[i]) log(lambda[i]) <- beta0[hab[i]] + beta1[hab[i]] * vegHt[i] # Some intermediate derived quantities critical[i] <- step(2-N[i])# yields 1 whenever N is 2 or less z[i] <- step(N[i]-0.5) # Indicator for occupied site # Observation model for replicated counts for (j in 1:J){ C[i,j] ~ dbin(p[i,j], N[i]) logit(p[i,j]) <- alpha0[j] + alpha1[j] * wind[i,j] } } # Derived quantities Nocc <- sum(z[]) # Number of occupied sites among sample of M Ntotal <- sum(N[]) # Total population size at M sites combined Nhab[1] <- sum(N[1:33]) # Total abundance for sites in hab A Nhab[2] <- sum(N[34:66]) # Total abundance for sites in hab B Nhab[3] <- sum(N[67:100])# Total abundance for sites in hab C for(k in 1:100){ # Predictions of lambda and p ... for(level in 1:3){ # ... for each level of hab and time factors lam.pred[k, level] <- exp(beta0[level] + beta1[level] * XvegHt[k]) logit(p.pred[k, level]) <- alpha0[level] + alpha1[level] * Xwind[k] } } N.critical <- sum(critical[]) # Number of populations with critical size }")

### Brief summary of the model

This is known as an "N-mixture" model in ecology. The details aren't really important for illustrating the mechanics of converting this model to NIMBLE, but here is a brief summary anyway. The latent abundances `N[i]` at sites `i = 1...M` are assumed to follow a Poisson. The j-th count at the i-th site, `C[i, j]`, is assumed to follow a binomial with detection probability `p[i, j]`. The abundance at each site depends on a habitat-specific intercept and coefficient for vegetation height, with a log link. The detection probability for each sampling occasion depends on a date-specific intercept and coefficient for wind speed. Kéry and Royle concocted this as a simulated example to illustrate the hierarchical modeling approaches for estimating abundance from count data on repeated visits to multiple sites.

## NIMBLE version of the model code

Here is the model converted for use in NIMBLE. In this case, the only changes to the code are to insert some missing index ranges (see comments).

library(nimble) Section6p4_code <- nimbleCode( { # Priors for(k in 1:3) { # Loop over 3 levels of hab or time factors alpha0[k] ~ dunif(-10, 10) # Detection intercepts alpha1[k] ~ dunif(-10, 10) # Detection slopes beta0[k] ~ dunif(-10, 10) # Abundance intercepts beta1[k] ~ dunif(-10, 10) # Abundance slopes } # Likelihood # Ecological model for true abundance for (i in 1:M){ N[i] ~ dpois(lambda[i]) log(lambda[i]) <- beta0[hab[i]] + beta1[hab[i]] * vegHt[i] # Some intermediate derived quantities critical[i] <- step(2-N[i])# yields 1 whenever N is 2 or less z[i] <- step(N[i]-0.5) # Indicator for occupied site # Observation model for replicated counts for (j in 1:J){ C[i,j] ~ dbin(p[i,j], N[i]) logit(p[i,j]) <- alpha0[j] + alpha1[j] * wind[i,j] } } # Derived quantities; unnececssary when running for inference purpose # NIMBLE: We have filled in indices in the next two lines. Nocc <- sum(z[1:100]) # Number of occupied sites among sample of M Ntotal <- sum(N[1:100]) # Total population size at M sites combined Nhab[1] <- sum(N[1:33]) # Total abundance for sites in hab A Nhab[2] <- sum(N[34:66]) # Total abundance for sites in hab B Nhab[3] <- sum(N[67:100])# Total abundance for sites in hab C for(k in 1:100){ # Predictions of lambda and p ... for(level in 1:3){ # ... for each level of hab and time factors lam.pred[k, level] <- exp(beta0[level] + beta1[level] * XvegHt[k]) logit(p.pred[k, level]) <- alpha0[level] + alpha1[level] * Xwind[k] } } # NIMBLE: We have filled in indices in the next line. N.critical <- sum(critical[1:100]) # Number of populations with critical size })

## Simulated data

To carry this example further, we need some simulated data. Kéry and Royle provide separate code to do this. With NIMBLE we could use the model itself to simulate data rather than writing separate simulation code. But for our goals here, we simply copy Kéry and Royle's simulation code, and we compact it somewhat:

# Code from Kery and Royle (2015) # Choose sample sizes and prepare obs. data array y set.seed(1) # So we all get same data set M <- 100 # Number of sites J <- 3 # Number of repeated abundance measurements C <- matrix(NA, nrow = M, ncol = J) # to contain the observed data # Create a covariate called vegHt vegHt <- sort(runif(M, -1, 1)) # sort for graphical convenience # Choose parameter values for abundance model and compute lambda beta0 <- 0 # Log-scale intercept beta1 <- 2 # Log-scale slope for vegHt lambda <- exp(beta0 + beta1 * vegHt) # Expected abundance # Draw local abundance N <- rpois(M, lambda) # Create a covariate called wind wind <- array(runif(M * J, -1, 1), dim = c(M, J)) # Choose parameter values for measurement error model and compute detectability alpha0 <- -2 # Logit-scale intercept alpha1 <- -3 # Logit-scale slope for wind p <- plogis(alpha0 + alpha1 * wind) # Detection probability # Take J = 3 abundance measurements at each site for(j in 1:J) { C[,j] <- rbinom(M, N, p[,j]) } # Create factors time <- matrix(rep(as.character(1:J), M), ncol = J, byrow = TRUE) hab <- c(rep("A", 33), rep("B", 33), rep("C", 34)) # assumes M = 100 # Bundle data # NIMBLE: For full flexibility, we could separate this list # into constants and data lists. For simplicity we will keep # it as one list to be provided as the "constants" argument. # See comments about how we would split it if desired. win.data <- list( ## NIMBLE: C is the actual data C = C, ## NIMBLE: Covariates can be data or constants ## If they are data, you could modify them after the model is built wind = wind, vegHt = vegHt, XvegHt = seq(-1, 1,, 100), # Used only for derived quantities Xwind = seq(-1, 1,,100), # Used only for derived quantities ## NIMBLE: The rest of these are constants, needed for model definition ## We can provide them in the same list and NIMBLE will figure it out. M = nrow(C), J = ncol(C), hab = as.numeric(factor(hab)) )

## Initial values

Next we need to set up initial values and choose parameters to monitor in the MCMC output. To do so we will again directly use Kéry and Royle's code.

Nst <- apply(C, 1, max)+1 # Important to give good inits for latent N inits <- function() list(N = Nst, alpha0 = rnorm(3), alpha1 = rnorm(3), beta0 = rnorm(3), beta1 = rnorm(3)) # Parameters monitored # could also estimate N, bayesian counterpart to BUPs before: simply add "N" to the list params <- c("alpha0", "alpha1", "beta0", "beta1", "Nocc", "Ntotal", "Nhab", "N.critical", "lam.pred", "p.pred")

## Run MCMC with `nimbleMCMC`

Now we are ready to run an MCMC in nimble. We will run only one chain, using the same settings as Kéry and Royle.

samples <- nimbleMCMC( code = Section6p4_code, constants = win.data, ## provide the combined data & constants as constants inits = inits, monitors = params, niter = 22000, nburnin = 2000, thin = 10)

## defining model...

## Detected C as data within 'constants'.

## Adding C as data for building model.

## building model...

## setting data and initial values...

## running calculate on model (any error reports that follow may simply reflect missing values in model variables) ... ## checking model sizes and dimensions... ## checking model calculations... ## model building finished. ## compiling... this may take a minute. Use 'showCompilerOutput = TRUE' to see C++ compiler details. ## compilation finished. ## runMCMC's handling of nburnin changed in nimble version 0.6-11. Previously, nburnin samples were discarded *post-thinning*. Now nburnin samples are discarded *pre-thinning*. The number of samples returned will be floor((niter-nburnin)/thin). ## running chain 1...

## |-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------| ## |-------------------------------------------------------|

## Work with the samples

Finally we want to look at our samples. NIMBLE returns samples as a simple matrix with named columns. There are numerous packages for processing MCMC output. If you want to use the `coda` package, you can convert a matrix to a coda mcmc object like this:

library(coda) coda.samples <- as.mcmc(samples)

Alternatively, if you call `nimbleMCMC` with the argument `samplesAsCodaMCMC = TRUE`, the samples will be returned as a coda object.

To show that MCMC really happened, here is a plot of `N.critical`:

plot(jitter(samples[, "N.critical"]), xlab = "iteration", ylab = "N.critical", main = "Number of populations with critical size", type = "l")

# Next steps

NIMBLE allows users to customize MCMC and other algorithms in many ways. See the NIMBLE User Manual and web site for more ideas.

## Smaller steps you may need for converting existing code

If the main steps above aren't sufficient, consider these additional steps when converting from JAGS, WinBUGS or OpenBUGS to NIMBLE.

- Convert any use of truncation syntax
- e.g.
`x ~ dnorm(0, tau) T(a, b)`should be re-written as`x ~ T(dnorm(0, tau), a, b)`. - If reading model code from a file using
`readBUGSmodel`, the`x ~ dnorm(0, tau) T(a, b)`syntax will work.

- e.g.
- Possibly split the
`data`into`data`and`constants`for NIMBLE.- NIMBLE has a more general concept of data, so NIMBLE makes a distinction between data and constants.
- Constants are necessary to define the model, such as
`nsite`in`for(i in 1:nsite) {...}`and constant vectors of factor indices (e.g.`block`in`mu[block[i]]`). - Data are observed values of some variables.
- Alternatively, one can provide a list of both constants and data for the
`constants`argument to`nimbleModel`, and NIMBLE will try to determine which is which. Usually this will work, but when in doubt, try separating them.

- Possibly update initial values (
`inits`).- In some cases, NIMBLE likes to have more complete
`inits`than the other packages. - In a model with stochastic indices, those indices should have
`inits`values. - When using
`nimbleMCMC`or`runMCMC`,`inits`can be a function, as in R packages for calling WinBUGS, OpenBUGS or JAGS. Alternatively, it can be a list. - When you build a model with
`nimbleModel`for more control than`nimbleMCMC`, you can provide`inits`as a list. This sets defaults that can be over-ridden with the`inits`argument to`runMCMC`.

- In some cases, NIMBLE likes to have more complete

# Two day workshop: Flexible programming of MCMC and other methods for hierarchical and Bayesian models

We’ll be giving a two day workshop at the 43rd Annual Summer Institute of Applied Statistics at Brigham Young University (BYU) in Utah, June 19-20, 2018.

Abstract is below, and registration and logistics information can be found here.

This workshop provides a hands-on introduction to using, programming, and sharing Bayesian and hierarchical modeling algorithms using NIMBLE (r-nimble.org). In addition to learning the NIMBLE system, users will develop hands-on experience with various computational methods. NIMBLE is an R-based system that allows one to fit models specified using BUGS/JAGS syntax but with much more flexibility in defining the statistical model and the algorithm to be used on the model. Users operate from within R, but NIMBLE generates C++ code for models and algorithms for fast computation. I will open with an overview of creating a hierarchical model and fitting the model using a basic MCMC, similarly to how one can use WinBUGS, JAGS, and Stan. I will then discuss how NIMBLE allows the user to modify the MCMC – changing samplers and specifying blocking of parameters. Next I will show how to extend the BUGS syntax with user-defined distributions and functions that provide flexibility in specifying a statistical model of interest. With this background we can then explore the NIMBLE programming system, which allows one to write new algorithms not already provided by NIMBLE, including new MCMC samplers, using a subset of the R language. I will then provide examples of non-MCMC algorithms that have been programmed in NIMBLE and how algorithms can be combined together, using the example of a particle filter embedded within an MCMC. We will see new functionality in NIMBLE that allows one to fit Bayesian nonparametric models and spatial models. I will close with a discussion of how NIMBLE enables sharing of new methods and reproducibility of research. The workshop will include a number of breakout periods for participants to use and program MCMC and other methods, either on example problems or problems provided by participants. In addition, participants will see NIMBLE’s flexibility in action in several real problems.

# Version 0.6-10 of NIMBLE released

We’ve released the newest version of NIMBLE on CRAN and on our website. Version 0.6-10 primarily contains updates to the NIMBLE internals that may speed up building and compilation of models and algorithms, as well as a few bug fixes.

Changes include:

- some steps of model and algorithm building and compilation are faster;
- compiled execution with multivariate distributions or function arguments may be faster;
- data can now be provided as a numeric data frame rather than a matrix;
- to run WAIC, a user now must set ‘enableWAIC’ to TRUE, either in NIMBLE’s options or as an argument to buildMCMC();
- if ‘enableWAIC’ is TRUE, buildMCMC() will now check to make sure that the nodes monitored by the MCMC algorithm will lead to a valid WAIC calculation; and
- the use of identityMatrix() is deprecated in favor of diag().

Please see the NEWS file in the installed package for more details

# NIMBLE webinar Friday April 13

**Programming with hierarchical statistical models: An introduction to the BUGS-compatible NIMBLE system for MCMC and more**

While analysts can use NIMBLE as a drop-in replacement for WinBUGS or JAGS, NIMBLE provides greatly enhanced functionality in a number of ways. The webinar will first show how to specify a hierarchical statistical model using BUGS syntax (including user-defined function and distributions) and fit that model using MCMC (including user customization for better performance). We will demonstrate the use of NIMBLE for biostatistical methods such as semiparametric random effects models and clustering models. We will close with a discussion of how to use the system to write algorithms for use with hierarchical models, including building and disseminating your own methods.

**Presenter:**

Adjunct Professor, Statistical Computing Consultant

Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley

# Version 0.6-9 of NIMBLE released

We’ve released the newest version of NIMBLE on CRAN and on our website. Version 0.6-9 is primarily a maintenance release with various bug fixes and fixes for CRAN packaging issues.

New features include:

- dimensions in a model will now be determined from either ‘inits’ or ‘data’ if not otherwise available;
- one can now specify “nBootReps = NA” in the runCrossValidate() function, which will prevent the Monte Carlo error from being calculated;
- runCrossValidate() now returns the averaged loss over all k folds, instead of the summed loss;
- We’ve added the besselK function to the NIMBLE language;
- and a variety of bug fixes.

Please see the NEWS file in the installed package for more details

# NIMBLE workshop in Switzerland, 23-25 April

There will be a three-day NIMBLE workshop in Sempach, Switzerland, 23-25 April, hosted at the Swiss Ornithological Institute. More information can be found here: http://www.phidot.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=3586. Examples will be oriented towards ecological applications, but otherwise the workshop content will be general.

# NIMBLE has a post-doc or software developer position open

The NIMBLE statistical software project at the University of California, Berkeley is looking for a post-doc or statistical software developer. NIMBLE is a tool for writing hierarchical statistical models and algorithms from R, with compilation via code-generated C++. Major methods currently include MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo, which users can customize and extend. More information can be found at https://R-nimble.org. Currently we seek someone with experience in computational statistical methods such as MCMC and excellent software development skills in R and C++. This could be someone with a Ph.D. in Statistics, Computer Science, or an applied statistical field in which they have done relevant work. Alternatively it could be someone with relevant experience in computational statistics and software engineering. The scope of work can include both core development of NIMBLE and development and application of innovative methods using NIMBLE, with specific focus depending on the background of the successful candidate. Applicants must have either a Ph.D. in a relevant field or have a proven record of relevant work. Please send cover letter, CV, and the names and contact information for three references to nimble.stats@gmail.com. Applications will be considered on a rolling basis starting 30 January, 2018.

# Version 0.6-8 of NIMBLE released

We’ve released the newest version of NIMBLE on CRAN and on our website a week ago. Version 0.6-8 has a few new features, and more are on the way in the next few months.

New features include:

- the proper Gaussian CAR (conditional autoregressive) model can now be used in BUGS code as dcar_proper, which behaves similarly to BUGS’ car.proper distribution;
- a new nimbleMCMC function that provides one-line invocation of NIMBLE’s MCMC engine, akin to usage of JAGS and WinBUGS through R;
- a new runCrossValidate function that will conduct k-fold cross-validation of NIMBLE models fit by MCMC;
- dynamic indexing in BUGS code is now allowed by default;
- and a variety of bug fixes and efficiency improvements.

Please see the NEWS file in the installed package for more details.

# Version 0.6-6 of NIMBLE released!

We’ve just released the newest version of NIMBLE on CRAN and on our website. Version 0.6-6 has some important new features, and more are on the way in the next few months.

New features include:

- dynamic indexes are now allowed in BUGS code — indexes of a variable no longer need to be constants but can be other nodes or functions of other nodes; for this release this is a beta feature that needs to be enabled with nimbleOptions(allowDynamicIndexing = TRUE);
- the intrinsic Gaussian CAR (conditional autoregressive) model can now be used in BUGS code as dcar_normal, which behaves similarly to BUGS’ car.normal distribution;
- optim is now part of the NIMBLE language and can be used in nimbleFunctions;
- it is possible to call out to external compiled code or back to R functions from a nimbleFunction using nimbleExternalCall() and nimbleRcall() (this is an experimental feature);
- the WAIC model selection criterion can be calculated using the calculateWAIC() method for MCMC objects;
- the bootstrap and auxiliary particle filters can now return their ESS values;
- and a variety of bug fixes.

Please see the NEWS file in the installed package for more details.

Finally, we’re deep in the midst of development work to enable automatic differentiation, Tensorflow as an alternative back-end computational engine, additional spatial models, and Bayesian nonparametrics.